A

Disease A

Slug:Obesity
B

Disease B

Slug:Heart_Failure
G

Causal Mechanism Graphs

Obesity

graph LR
    Lifestyle_Modification["Lifestyle Modification"]
    Pasteurized_Akkermansia_muciniphila_MucT_Supplementation["Pasteurized Akkermansia muciniphila MucT Supplementation"]
    High_Calorie_Diet["High-Calorie Diet"]
    LEP["LEP"]
    MC4R["MC4R"]
    Energy_Imbalance["Energy Imbalance"]
    POMC["POMC"]
    Obesogenic_Environment["Obesogenic Environment"]
    Post_Weight_Loss_Weight_Regain["Post-Weight-Loss Weight Regain"]
    Increased_Body_Mass_Index["Increased Body Mass Index"]
    Intestinal_Barrier_Dysfunction_and_Metabolic_Endotoxemia["Intestinal Barrier Dysfunction and Metabolic Endotoxemia"]
    LEPR["LEPR"]
    GLP_1_GIP_Dual_Agonists["GLP-1/GIP Dual Agonists"]
    Chronic_Low_Grade_Inflammation["Chronic Low-Grade Inflammation"]
    Depletion_of_Mucosal_Symbiont_Akkermansia_muciniphila["Depletion of Mucosal Symbiont Akkermansia muciniphila"]
    GLP_1_Receptor_Agonists["GLP-1 Receptor Agonists"]
    Orlistat["Orlistat"]
    Hypothalamic_Dysregulation["Hypothalamic Dysregulation"]
    Bariatric_Surgery["Bariatric Surgery"]
    Efficient_Intestinal_Energy_Harvest["Efficient Intestinal Energy Harvest"]
    Naltrexone_Bupropion["Naltrexone-Bupropion"]

    Depletion_of_Mucosal_Symbiont_Akkermansia_muciniphila --> Intestinal_Barrier_Dysfunction_and_Metabolic_Endotoxemia
    Intestinal_Barrier_Dysfunction_and_Metabolic_Endotoxemia --> Chronic_Low_Grade_Inflammation
    Efficient_Intestinal_Energy_Harvest --> Energy_Imbalance
    Post_Weight_Loss_Weight_Regain --> Increased_Body_Mass_Index
    High_Calorie_Diet --> Energy_Imbalance
    Obesogenic_Environment --> Increased_Body_Mass_Index
    Lifestyle_Modification --> Energy_Imbalance
    GLP_1_Receptor_Agonists --> Hypothalamic_Dysregulation
    GLP_1_Receptor_Agonists --> Energy_Imbalance
    GLP_1_Receptor_Agonists --> Post_Weight_Loss_Weight_Regain
    GLP_1_GIP_Dual_Agonists --> Energy_Imbalance
    GLP_1_GIP_Dual_Agonists --> Post_Weight_Loss_Weight_Regain
    Bariatric_Surgery --> Hypothalamic_Dysregulation
    Bariatric_Surgery --> Energy_Imbalance
    Orlistat --> Efficient_Intestinal_Energy_Harvest
    Orlistat --> Post_Weight_Loss_Weight_Regain
    Naltrexone_Bupropion --> Hypothalamic_Dysregulation
    Pasteurized_Akkermansia_muciniphila_MucT_Supplementation --> Post_Weight_Loss_Weight_Regain
    Pasteurized_Akkermansia_muciniphila_MucT_Supplementation --> Efficient_Intestinal_Energy_Harvest
    Pasteurized_Akkermansia_muciniphila_MucT_Supplementation --> Intestinal_Barrier_Dysfunction_and_Metabolic_Endotoxemia
    MC4R --> Hypothalamic_Dysregulation
    LEP --> Hypothalamic_Dysregulation
    LEPR --> Hypothalamic_Dysregulation
    POMC --> Hypothalamic_Dysregulation

    style Lifestyle_Modification fill:#fce7f3
    style Pasteurized_Akkermansia_muciniphila_MucT_Supplementation fill:#fce7f3
    style High_Calorie_Diet fill:#dcfce7
    style LEP fill:#f3e8ff
    style MC4R fill:#f3e8ff
    style Energy_Imbalance fill:#dbeafe
    style POMC fill:#f3e8ff
    style Obesogenic_Environment fill:#dcfce7
    style Post_Weight_Loss_Weight_Regain fill:#dbeafe
    style Increased_Body_Mass_Index fill:#fef3c7
    style Intestinal_Barrier_Dysfunction_and_Metabolic_Endotoxemia fill:#dbeafe
    style LEPR fill:#f3e8ff
    style GLP_1_GIP_Dual_Agonists fill:#fce7f3
    style Chronic_Low_Grade_Inflammation fill:#dbeafe
    style Depletion_of_Mucosal_Symbiont_Akkermansia_muciniphila fill:#dbeafe
    style GLP_1_Receptor_Agonists fill:#fce7f3
    style Orlistat fill:#fce7f3
    style Hypothalamic_Dysregulation fill:#dbeafe
    style Bariatric_Surgery fill:#fce7f3
    style Efficient_Intestinal_Energy_Harvest fill:#dbeafe
    style Naltrexone_Bupropion fill:#fce7f3

Heart Failure

graph LR
    CircAdapt_virtual_pacing_CRT_response_twin["CircAdapt virtual-pacing CRT response twin"]
    Tissue_Glucocorticoid_Amplification_by_11beta_HSD1["Tissue Glucocorticoid Amplification by 11beta-HSD1"]
    SGLT2_Inhibitors["SGLT2 Inhibitors"]
    Orthopnea["Orthopnea"]
    Peripheral_Edema["Peripheral Edema"]
    Postmenopausal_Oestrogen_Withdrawal["Postmenopausal Oestrogen Withdrawal"]
    ARNI_Sacubitril_Valsartan["ARNI (Sacubitril/Valsartan)"]
    CircAdapt_par_75_imaging_based_left_ventricular_digital_twin["CircAdapt par-75 imaging-based left-ventricular digital twin"]
    Myocardial_Contractile_Dysfunction["Myocardial Contractile Dysfunction"]
    BNP_NT_proBNP["BNP/NT-proBNP"]
    Coronary_Artery_Disease["Coronary Artery Disease"]
    Cardiac_Resynchronization_Therapy["Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy"]
    Lipoproteina_Driven_Coronary_Microvascular_Dysfunction["Lipoprotein(a)-Driven Coronary Microvascular Dysfunction"]
    Alcohol_Abuse["Alcohol Abuse"]
    Hypertension["Hypertension"]
    Neurohormonal_Activation["Neurohormonal Activation"]
    Loss_of_Myocardial_Oestrogen_Receptor_Signalling["Loss of Myocardial Oestrogen Receptor Signalling"]
    Troponin["Troponin"]
    Mineralocorticoid_Receptor_Antagonists["Mineralocorticoid Receptor Antagonists"]
    Dyspnea["Dyspnea"]
    Fatigue["Fatigue"]
    Cardiomegaly["Cardiomegaly"]
    Fluid_Retention["Fluid Retention"]
    Endocrine_Convergence_on_Shared_Profibrotic_Effectors["Endocrine Convergence on Shared Profibrotic Effectors"]
    Exercise_Intolerance["Exercise Intolerance"]
    Beta_Blockers["Beta Blockers"]
    ACE_Inhibitors_ARBs["ACE Inhibitors/ARBs"]
    Ventricular_Remodeling["Ventricular Remodeling"]
    Diuretics["Diuretics"]

    Myocardial_Contractile_Dysfunction --> Neurohormonal_Activation
    Myocardial_Contractile_Dysfunction --> Exercise_Intolerance
    Myocardial_Contractile_Dysfunction --> Fatigue
    Neurohormonal_Activation --> Endocrine_Convergence_on_Shared_Profibrotic_Effectors
    Neurohormonal_Activation --> Ventricular_Remodeling
    Neurohormonal_Activation --> Fluid_Retention
    Ventricular_Remodeling --> Myocardial_Contractile_Dysfunction
    Fluid_Retention --> Dyspnea
    Fluid_Retention --> Orthopnea
    Fluid_Retention --> Peripheral_Edema
    Endocrine_Convergence_on_Shared_Profibrotic_Effectors --> Ventricular_Remodeling
    Tissue_Glucocorticoid_Amplification_by_11beta_HSD1 --> Endocrine_Convergence_on_Shared_Profibrotic_Effectors
    Postmenopausal_Oestrogen_Withdrawal --> Loss_of_Myocardial_Oestrogen_Receptor_Signalling
    Postmenopausal_Oestrogen_Withdrawal --> Endocrine_Convergence_on_Shared_Profibrotic_Effectors
    Loss_of_Myocardial_Oestrogen_Receptor_Signalling --> Endocrine_Convergence_on_Shared_Profibrotic_Effectors
    Lipoproteina_Driven_Coronary_Microvascular_Dysfunction --> Myocardial_Contractile_Dysfunction
    Hypertension --> Ventricular_Remodeling
    Coronary_Artery_Disease --> Myocardial_Contractile_Dysfunction
    Alcohol_Abuse --> Myocardial_Contractile_Dysfunction
    ACE_Inhibitors_ARBs --> Neurohormonal_Activation
    Beta_Blockers --> Neurohormonal_Activation
    Beta_Blockers --> Ventricular_Remodeling
    ARNI_Sacubitril_Valsartan --> Neurohormonal_Activation
    SGLT2_Inhibitors --> Fluid_Retention
    Mineralocorticoid_Receptor_Antagonists --> Endocrine_Convergence_on_Shared_Profibrotic_Effectors
    Diuretics --> Fluid_Retention
    Cardiac_Resynchronization_Therapy --> Myocardial_Contractile_Dysfunction
    CircAdapt_par_75_imaging_based_left_ventricular_digital_twin --> Myocardial_Contractile_Dysfunction
    CircAdapt_virtual_pacing_CRT_response_twin --> Ventricular_Remodeling
    Neurohormonal_Activation -.-> BNP_NT_proBNP
    Myocardial_Contractile_Dysfunction -.-> Troponin
    Ventricular_Remodeling -.-> Cardiomegaly

    style CircAdapt_virtual_pacing_CRT_response_twin fill:#ecfccb
    style Tissue_Glucocorticoid_Amplification_by_11beta_HSD1 fill:#dbeafe
    style SGLT2_Inhibitors fill:#fce7f3
    style Orthopnea fill:#fef3c7
    style Peripheral_Edema fill:#fef3c7
    style Postmenopausal_Oestrogen_Withdrawal fill:#dbeafe
    style ARNI_Sacubitril_Valsartan fill:#fce7f3
    style CircAdapt_par_75_imaging_based_left_ventricular_digital_twin fill:#ecfccb
    style Myocardial_Contractile_Dysfunction fill:#dbeafe
    style BNP_NT_proBNP fill:#e0e7ff
    style Coronary_Artery_Disease fill:#dcfce7
    style Cardiac_Resynchronization_Therapy fill:#fce7f3
    style Lipoproteina_Driven_Coronary_Microvascular_Dysfunction fill:#dbeafe
    style Alcohol_Abuse fill:#dcfce7
    style Hypertension fill:#dcfce7
    style Neurohormonal_Activation fill:#dbeafe
    style Loss_of_Myocardial_Oestrogen_Receptor_Signalling fill:#dbeafe
    style Troponin fill:#e0e7ff
    style Mineralocorticoid_Receptor_Antagonists fill:#fce7f3
    style Dyspnea fill:#fef3c7
    style Fatigue fill:#fef3c7
    style Cardiomegaly fill:#fef3c7
    style Fluid_Retention fill:#dbeafe
    style Endocrine_Convergence_on_Shared_Profibrotic_Effectors fill:#dbeafe
    style Exercise_Intolerance fill:#fef3c7
    style Beta_Blockers fill:#fce7f3
    style ACE_Inhibitors_ARBs fill:#fce7f3
    style Ventricular_Remodeling fill:#dbeafe
    style Diuretics fill:#fce7f3
S

Association Signals

Signal 1
LITERATURE LITERATURE_ASSOCIATION A_BEFORE_B
Population:Framingham Heart Study community cohort, 5881 participants of mean age 55 years, 54 percent women, followed a mean of 14 years, with heart failure incidence modeled against body-mass index by Cox proportional hazards and adjusted for established risk factors.
Temporal: A before B: , B before A: , Same time:
HR: 2.12
CI: -
p:
FDR:
Adjusted hazard ratio for incident heart failure in obese versus normal-body-mass-index women; 1.90 in men. A graded increase was seen across body-mass-index categories rather than only at the obese threshold, which is why the entry does not restrict the claim to extreme obesity.
PMID:12151467 (SUPPORT)
Source: HUMAN_CLINICAL
"For women, the hazard ratio was 2.12 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.51 to 2.97); for men, the hazard ratio was 1.90 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.30 to 2.79)."
Gives the adjusted hazard ratios behind this signal, measured prospectively in a community cohort followed forward from body-mass index to incident heart failure, which is what a directed A_BEFORE_B risk signal requires.
PMID:12151467 (SUPPORT)
Source: HUMAN_CLINICAL
"As compared with subjects with a normal body-mass index, obese subjects had a doubling of the risk of heart failure."
The study's own summary of the effect size, stated without the sex-stratified detail.
H

Hypotheses

Obesity raises heart failure risk through a combination of haemodynamic loading, adipose-driven inflammation and the metabolic comorbidities that accompany it, and does so across the body-mass index range rather than only at its extreme. The association is strongest for the preserved ejection-fraction phenotype.
PMID:39555826 (SUPPORT)
Source: HUMAN_CLINICAL
"Obesity increases the risk of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction."
States the subtype-specific relationship the original environmental entry asserted. This is the trial's framing of established risk rather than its own result -- SUMMIT measured tirzepatide, not whether obesity causes HFpEF -- so it is cited for the direction of the association only; the measured magnitude is carried by the Framingham signal below.
Y

Raw YAML

Show YAML
name: com_Obesity__Heart_Failure
creation_date: "2026-08-27T00:00:00Z"
curation_status: CANDIDATE
notes: >-
  Split out of `kb/disorders/Heart_Failure.yaml`'s `environmental:` block
  (dismech#8296, dismech#8551). That entry listed `Obesity` as an exposure with
  the note "Risk factor for HFpEF", but obesity is a first-class `Disease` entry
  in its own right (`kb/disorders/Obesity.yaml`) rather than something external
  to the organism acting on it, and ECTO has no term that would bind it as an
  exposure. Modeling it here as a disease-disease comorbidity makes the
  relationship queryable and avoids an exposure edge that could never be
  grounded.

  The original note pointed specifically at heart failure with preserved
  ejection fraction. HFpEF is a `has_subtypes` entry on `Heart_Failure` rather
  than a separate disorder file, so `disease_b` is `Heart_Failure` and the
  subtype specificity is recorded here instead of being asserted by a term this
  KB does not carry. The evidence supports both readings: the Framingham cohort
  measured incident heart failure without ejection-fraction stratification,
  while the HFpEF-specific statement comes from a trial population selected for
  it.

  Directionality is A_BEFORE_B: obesity is the antecedent risk state. The
  reverse arm is real but different in kind -- heart failure causes cachexia
  rather than obesity -- and is not modeled here.

disease_a:
  slug: Obesity
  preferred_term: obesity disorder
  term:
    id: MONDO:0011122
    label: obesity disorder

disease_b:
  slug: Heart_Failure
  preferred_term: heart failure
  term:
    id: MONDO:0005252
    label: heart failure

directionality: A_BEFORE_B
effect_direction: RISK

hypotheses:
- description: >-
    Obesity raises heart failure risk through a combination of haemodynamic
    loading, adipose-driven inflammation and the metabolic comorbidities that
    accompany it, and does so across the body-mass index range rather than only
    at its extreme. The association is strongest for the preserved
    ejection-fraction phenotype.
  evidence:
  - reference: PMID:39555826
    reference_title: Tirzepatide for Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction and Obesity.
    supports: SUPPORT
    evidence_source: HUMAN_CLINICAL
    snippet: "Obesity increases the risk of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction."
    explanation: >-
      States the subtype-specific relationship the original environmental entry
      asserted. This is the trial's framing of established risk rather than its
      own result -- SUMMIT measured tirzepatide, not whether obesity causes
      HFpEF -- so it is cited for the direction of the association only; the
      measured magnitude is carried by the Framingham signal below.

association_signals:
- source: LITERATURE
  method: LITERATURE_ASSOCIATION
  population: >-
    Framingham Heart Study community cohort, 5881 participants of mean age 55
    years, 54 percent women, followed a mean of 14 years, with heart failure
    incidence modeled against body-mass index by Cox proportional hazards and
    adjusted for established risk factors.
  directionality: A_BEFORE_B
  effect_direction: RISK
  statistics:
    metrics:
    - metric_type: HR
      metric_value: 2.12
      notes: >-
        Adjusted hazard ratio for incident heart failure in obese versus
        normal-body-mass-index women; 1.90 in men. A graded increase was seen
        across body-mass-index categories rather than only at the obese
        threshold, which is why the entry does not restrict the claim to extreme
        obesity.
    evidence:
    - reference: PMID:12151467
      reference_title: Obesity and the risk of heart failure.
      supports: SUPPORT
      evidence_source: HUMAN_CLINICAL
      snippet: "For women, the hazard ratio was 2.12 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.51 to 2.97); for men, the hazard ratio was 1.90 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.30 to 2.79)."
      explanation: >-
        Gives the adjusted hazard ratios behind this signal, measured
        prospectively in a community cohort followed forward from body-mass
        index to incident heart failure, which is what a directed A_BEFORE_B
        risk signal requires.
    - reference: PMID:12151467
      reference_title: Obesity and the risk of heart failure.
      supports: SUPPORT
      evidence_source: HUMAN_CLINICAL
      snippet: "As compared with subjects with a normal body-mass index, obese subjects had a doubling of the risk of heart failure."
      explanation: >-
        The study's own summary of the effect size, stated without the
        sex-stratified detail.
Source:GitHub