A

Disease A

Slug:Chronic_Pancreatitis
B

Disease B

Slug:Pancreatic_Ductal_Adenocarcinoma
G

Causal Mechanism Graphs

Chronic Pancreatitis

graph LR
    Recurrent_Acinar_Cell_Injury["Recurrent Acinar Cell Injury"]
    Alcohol_Consumption["Alcohol Consumption"]
    Endocrine_Insufficiency["Endocrine Insufficiency"]
    Exocrine_Insufficiency["Exocrine Insufficiency"]
    Diabetes_Mellitus["Diabetes Mellitus"]
    Steatorrhea["Steatorrhea"]
    Weight_Loss["Weight Loss"]
    Smoking["Smoking"]

    Exocrine_Insufficiency --> Steatorrhea
    Exocrine_Insufficiency --> Weight_Loss
    Endocrine_Insufficiency --> Diabetes_Mellitus
    Alcohol_Consumption --> Recurrent_Acinar_Cell_Injury
    Smoking --> Recurrent_Acinar_Cell_Injury

    style Recurrent_Acinar_Cell_Injury fill:#dbeafe
    style Alcohol_Consumption fill:#dcfce7
    style Endocrine_Insufficiency fill:#dbeafe
    style Exocrine_Insufficiency fill:#dbeafe
    style Diabetes_Mellitus fill:#fef3c7
    style Steatorrhea fill:#fef3c7
    style Weight_Loss fill:#fef3c7
    style Smoking fill:#dcfce7

Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

graph LR
    Acinar_to_Ductal_Metaplasia["Acinar-to-Ductal Metaplasia"]
    KRAS_GM_CSF_Myeloid_Immunosuppression["KRAS-GM-CSF Myeloid Immunosuppression"]
    Adaptive_CD24_Antiphagocytic_Signaling["Adaptive CD24 Antiphagocytic Signaling"]
    Desmoplastic_Stroma["Desmoplastic Stroma"]
    Acquired_RASON_Inhibitor_Resistance["Acquired RAS(ON) Inhibitor Resistance"]
    Early_Dissemination_and_EMT["Early Dissemination and EMT"]
    Exocrine_Pancreatic_Insufficiency["Exocrine Pancreatic Insufficiency"]
    KRAS_Oncogene_Activation["KRAS Oncogene Activation"]
    Obstructive_Jaundice["Obstructive Jaundice"]
    Weight_Loss["Weight Loss"]
    KRAS_Regulated_Glutamine_Redox_Metabolism["KRAS-Regulated Glutamine Redox Metabolism"]
    Pancreatic_Precursor_Progression_and_Invasive_Growth["Pancreatic Precursor Progression and Invasive Growth"]
    PDAC_Immunotherapy_PhysiCell_Model["PDAC Immunotherapy PhysiCell Model"]
    Antigen_Presentation_Restoration["Antigen Presentation Restoration"]
    MYC_Amplification_Driven_RAS_Independent_Proliferation["MYC Amplification-Driven RAS-Independent Proliferation"]
    PDAC_CAF_Mediated_Invasion_PhysiCell_Model["PDAC CAF-Mediated Invasion PhysiCell Model"]
    Basal_State_GM_CSF_Immunosuppressive_Circuit["Basal-State GM-CSF Immunosuppressive Circuit"]
    Human_PDAC_Cell_and_Organoid_RAS_Response_Models["Human PDAC Cell and Organoid RAS-Response Models"]
    USP20_Cholesterol_Metabolism_CD8_Exhaustion_Checkpoint["USP20 Cholesterol-Metabolism CD8 Exhaustion Checkpoint"]
    RAS_Independent_Cell_Cycle_Uncoupling["RAS-Independent Cell-Cycle Uncoupling"]
    Immunosuppressive_TME_Reversibility_under_RASON_Inhibition["Immunosuppressive TME Reversibility under RAS(ON) Inhibition"]
    Daraxonrasib_RASON_Multiselective_Inhibitor["Daraxonrasib (RAS(ON) Multiselective Inhibitor)"]
    Matrix_Associated_Hypoperfusion["Matrix-Associated Hypoperfusion"]
    KPC_RMC_7977_Acquired_Resistance_Models["KPC RMC-7977 Acquired-Resistance Models"]
    Metastatic_Dissemination_and_Colonization["Metastatic Dissemination and Colonization"]
    Pancreatic_Exocrine_Functional_Loss["Pancreatic Exocrine Functional Loss"]
    Tumor_Cell_FAS_Induction_and_CD8_Mediated_Killing["Tumor-Cell FAS Induction and CD8-Mediated Killing"]
    Hepatic_Metastases["Hepatic Metastases"]
    Autophagy_Lysosome_Growth_Support["Autophagy-Lysosome Growth Support"]
    NBR1_Mediated_MHC_I_Autophagic_Degradation["NBR1-Mediated MHC-I Autophagic Degradation"]
    Myeloid_Suppression_Relief_and_CD8_Effector_Infiltration["Myeloid Suppression Relief and CD8 Effector Infiltration"]
    Adaptive_mTOR_and_JUN_AP1_Transcriptional_Program["Adaptive mTOR and JUN-AP1 Transcriptional Program"]
    KRAS_Dependent_Anabolic_Glucose_Metabolism["KRAS-Dependent Anabolic Glucose Metabolism"]
    Macropinocytic_Protein_Scavenging["Macropinocytic Protein Scavenging"]
    Immunocompetent_Mouse_PDAC_RAS_Inhibition_Models["Immunocompetent Mouse PDAC RAS-Inhibition Models"]
    FAK_Mediated_Antigen_Presentation_Suppression["FAK-Mediated Antigen-Presentation Suppression"]
    Cyclophilin_A_Loss_and_Reduced_Tri_Complex_Engagement["Cyclophilin A Loss and Reduced Tri-Complex Engagement"]
    Biliary_Drainage["Biliary Drainage"]
    KRAS["KRAS"]
    IL1_LIF_JAK_STAT_Inflammatory_Fibroblast_Programming["IL1-LIF-JAK-STAT Inflammatory Fibroblast Programming"]
    CAF_Mediated_T_Cell_Exclusion["CAF-Mediated T Cell Exclusion"]
    CDK8_CXCL2_Adaptive_Immune_Reversal["CDK8-CXCL2 Adaptive Immune Reversal"]
    On_Target_RAS_Reactivation_and_KRAS_Amplification["On-Target RAS Reactivation and KRAS Amplification"]
    Regulatory_T_Cell_Recruitment_after_KRAS_Inhibition["Regulatory T-Cell Recruitment after KRAS Inhibition"]
    Experimental_KRAS_Inhibition_with_Immune_Checkpoint_Blockade["Experimental KRAS Inhibition with Immune Checkpoint Blockade"]
    Senescent_Myofibroblast_Immunosuppression["Senescent Myofibroblast Immunosuppression"]
    Exosome_MIF_Liver_Premetastatic_Niche["Exosome-MIF Liver Premetastatic Niche"]
    Immune_Evasion["Immune Evasion"]
    Chronic_Pancreatic_Inflammation["Chronic Pancreatic Inflammation"]
    IL6_CAF_and_Myeloid_Rebound_after_SOS1_MEK_Inhibition["IL6-CAF and Myeloid Rebound after SOS1-MEK Inhibition"]
    Tumor_Restraining_Fibroblast_Programs["Tumor-Restraining Fibroblast Programs"]
    Experimental_RAS_EGFR_STAT3_Combination["Experimental RAS-EGFR-STAT3 Combination"]
    Pancreatic_Enzyme_Replacement["Pancreatic Enzyme Replacement"]
    Tumor_Suppressor_Inactivation["Tumor Suppressor Inactivation"]
    RTK_and_Feedback_Pathway_Reactivation["RTK and Feedback Pathway Reactivation"]

    Chronic_Pancreatic_Inflammation --> Acinar_to_Ductal_Metaplasia
    Chronic_Pancreatic_Inflammation --> Early_Dissemination_and_EMT
    Acinar_to_Ductal_Metaplasia --> Pancreatic_Precursor_Progression_and_Invasive_Growth
    KRAS_Oncogene_Activation --> Acinar_to_Ductal_Metaplasia
    KRAS_Oncogene_Activation --> KRAS_Dependent_Anabolic_Glucose_Metabolism
    KRAS_Oncogene_Activation --> KRAS_Regulated_Glutamine_Redox_Metabolism
    KRAS_Oncogene_Activation --> Macropinocytic_Protein_Scavenging
    KRAS_Oncogene_Activation --> KRAS_GM_CSF_Myeloid_Immunosuppression
    KRAS_Oncogene_Activation --> USP20_Cholesterol_Metabolism_CD8_Exhaustion_Checkpoint
    Tumor_Suppressor_Inactivation --> Pancreatic_Precursor_Progression_and_Invasive_Growth
    Pancreatic_Precursor_Progression_and_Invasive_Growth --> Desmoplastic_Stroma
    Pancreatic_Precursor_Progression_and_Invasive_Growth --> Metastatic_Dissemination_and_Colonization
    Pancreatic_Precursor_Progression_and_Invasive_Growth --> IL1_LIF_JAK_STAT_Inflammatory_Fibroblast_Programming
    Pancreatic_Precursor_Progression_and_Invasive_Growth --> Tumor_Restraining_Fibroblast_Programs
    Pancreatic_Precursor_Progression_and_Invasive_Growth --> Pancreatic_Exocrine_Functional_Loss
    Pancreatic_Precursor_Progression_and_Invasive_Growth --> Obstructive_Jaundice
    Desmoplastic_Stroma --> CAF_Mediated_T_Cell_Exclusion
    Desmoplastic_Stroma --> Matrix_Associated_Hypoperfusion
    CAF_Mediated_T_Cell_Exclusion --> Immune_Evasion
    KRAS_Dependent_Anabolic_Glucose_Metabolism --> Pancreatic_Precursor_Progression_and_Invasive_Growth
    KRAS_Regulated_Glutamine_Redox_Metabolism --> Pancreatic_Precursor_Progression_and_Invasive_Growth
    Macropinocytic_Protein_Scavenging --> Pancreatic_Precursor_Progression_and_Invasive_Growth
    Autophagy_Lysosome_Growth_Support --> Pancreatic_Precursor_Progression_and_Invasive_Growth
    KRAS_GM_CSF_Myeloid_Immunosuppression --> Immune_Evasion
    NBR1_Mediated_MHC_I_Autophagic_Degradation --> Immune_Evasion
    FAK_Mediated_Antigen_Presentation_Suppression --> Immune_Evasion
    Exosome_MIF_Liver_Premetastatic_Niche --> Metastatic_Dissemination_and_Colonization
    Metastatic_Dissemination_and_Colonization --> Hepatic_Metastases
    Cyclophilin_A_Loss_and_Reduced_Tri_Complex_Engagement --> Acquired_RASON_Inhibitor_Resistance
    RAS_Independent_Cell_Cycle_Uncoupling --> Acquired_RASON_Inhibitor_Resistance
    On_Target_RAS_Reactivation_and_KRAS_Amplification --> Acquired_RASON_Inhibitor_Resistance
    RTK_and_Feedback_Pathway_Reactivation --> Acquired_RASON_Inhibitor_Resistance
    Adaptive_mTOR_and_JUN_AP1_Transcriptional_Program --> Acquired_RASON_Inhibitor_Resistance
    MYC_Amplification_Driven_RAS_Independent_Proliferation --> Acquired_RASON_Inhibitor_Resistance
    Myeloid_Suppression_Relief_and_CD8_Effector_Infiltration --> Immunosuppressive_TME_Reversibility_under_RASON_Inhibition
    Tumor_Cell_FAS_Induction_and_CD8_Mediated_Killing --> Immunosuppressive_TME_Reversibility_under_RASON_Inhibition
    Antigen_Presentation_Restoration --> Immunosuppressive_TME_Reversibility_under_RASON_Inhibition
    USP20_Cholesterol_Metabolism_CD8_Exhaustion_Checkpoint --> Immune_Evasion
    USP20_Cholesterol_Metabolism_CD8_Exhaustion_Checkpoint --> Autophagy_Lysosome_Growth_Support
    CDK8_CXCL2_Adaptive_Immune_Reversal --> Immune_Evasion
    IL6_CAF_and_Myeloid_Rebound_after_SOS1_MEK_Inhibition --> Immune_Evasion
    Basal_State_GM_CSF_Immunosuppressive_Circuit --> Immune_Evasion
    Pancreatic_Exocrine_Functional_Loss --> Exocrine_Pancreatic_Insufficiency
    Pancreatic_Exocrine_Functional_Loss --> Weight_Loss
    Adaptive_CD24_Antiphagocytic_Signaling --> Immune_Evasion
    Senescent_Myofibroblast_Immunosuppression --> Immune_Evasion
    Daraxonrasib_RASON_Multiselective_Inhibitor --> KRAS_Oncogene_Activation
    Daraxonrasib_RASON_Multiselective_Inhibitor --> Immunosuppressive_TME_Reversibility_under_RASON_Inhibition
    Daraxonrasib_RASON_Multiselective_Inhibitor --> Regulatory_T_Cell_Recruitment_after_KRAS_Inhibition
    Experimental_KRAS_Inhibition_with_Immune_Checkpoint_Blockade --> Immunosuppressive_TME_Reversibility_under_RASON_Inhibition
    Pancreatic_Enzyme_Replacement --> Exocrine_Pancreatic_Insufficiency
    Biliary_Drainage --> Obstructive_Jaundice
    Experimental_RAS_EGFR_STAT3_Combination --> KRAS_Oncogene_Activation
    Experimental_RAS_EGFR_STAT3_Combination --> Acquired_RASON_Inhibitor_Resistance
    Human_PDAC_Cell_and_Organoid_RAS_Response_Models --> KRAS_Oncogene_Activation
    Immunocompetent_Mouse_PDAC_RAS_Inhibition_Models --> Immunosuppressive_TME_Reversibility_under_RASON_Inhibition
    KPC_RMC_7977_Acquired_Resistance_Models --> MYC_Amplification_Driven_RAS_Independent_Proliferation
    PDAC_CAF_Mediated_Invasion_PhysiCell_Model --> Desmoplastic_Stroma
    PDAC_Immunotherapy_PhysiCell_Model --> Immune_Evasion
    KRAS --> KRAS_Oncogene_Activation

    style Acinar_to_Ductal_Metaplasia fill:#dbeafe
    style KRAS_GM_CSF_Myeloid_Immunosuppression fill:#dbeafe
    style Adaptive_CD24_Antiphagocytic_Signaling fill:#dbeafe
    style Desmoplastic_Stroma fill:#dbeafe
    style Acquired_RASON_Inhibitor_Resistance fill:#dbeafe
    style Early_Dissemination_and_EMT fill:#dbeafe
    style Exocrine_Pancreatic_Insufficiency fill:#fef3c7
    style KRAS_Oncogene_Activation fill:#dbeafe
    style Obstructive_Jaundice fill:#fef3c7
    style Weight_Loss fill:#fef3c7
    style KRAS_Regulated_Glutamine_Redox_Metabolism fill:#dbeafe
    style Pancreatic_Precursor_Progression_and_Invasive_Growth fill:#dbeafe
    style PDAC_Immunotherapy_PhysiCell_Model fill:#ecfccb
    style Antigen_Presentation_Restoration fill:#dbeafe
    style MYC_Amplification_Driven_RAS_Independent_Proliferation fill:#dbeafe
    style PDAC_CAF_Mediated_Invasion_PhysiCell_Model fill:#ecfccb
    style Basal_State_GM_CSF_Immunosuppressive_Circuit fill:#dbeafe
    style Human_PDAC_Cell_and_Organoid_RAS_Response_Models fill:#ccfbf1
    style USP20_Cholesterol_Metabolism_CD8_Exhaustion_Checkpoint fill:#dbeafe
    style RAS_Independent_Cell_Cycle_Uncoupling fill:#dbeafe
    style Immunosuppressive_TME_Reversibility_under_RASON_Inhibition fill:#dbeafe
    style Daraxonrasib_RASON_Multiselective_Inhibitor fill:#fce7f3
    style Matrix_Associated_Hypoperfusion fill:#dbeafe
    style KPC_RMC_7977_Acquired_Resistance_Models fill:#ede9fe
    style Metastatic_Dissemination_and_Colonization fill:#dbeafe
    style Pancreatic_Exocrine_Functional_Loss fill:#dbeafe
    style Tumor_Cell_FAS_Induction_and_CD8_Mediated_Killing fill:#dbeafe
    style Hepatic_Metastases fill:#fef3c7
    style Autophagy_Lysosome_Growth_Support fill:#dbeafe
    style NBR1_Mediated_MHC_I_Autophagic_Degradation fill:#dbeafe
    style Myeloid_Suppression_Relief_and_CD8_Effector_Infiltration fill:#dbeafe
    style Adaptive_mTOR_and_JUN_AP1_Transcriptional_Program fill:#dbeafe
    style KRAS_Dependent_Anabolic_Glucose_Metabolism fill:#dbeafe
    style Macropinocytic_Protein_Scavenging fill:#dbeafe
    style Immunocompetent_Mouse_PDAC_RAS_Inhibition_Models fill:#ede9fe
    style FAK_Mediated_Antigen_Presentation_Suppression fill:#dbeafe
    style Cyclophilin_A_Loss_and_Reduced_Tri_Complex_Engagement fill:#dbeafe
    style Biliary_Drainage fill:#fce7f3
    style KRAS fill:#f3e8ff
    style IL1_LIF_JAK_STAT_Inflammatory_Fibroblast_Programming fill:#dbeafe
    style CAF_Mediated_T_Cell_Exclusion fill:#dbeafe
    style CDK8_CXCL2_Adaptive_Immune_Reversal fill:#dbeafe
    style On_Target_RAS_Reactivation_and_KRAS_Amplification fill:#dbeafe
    style Regulatory_T_Cell_Recruitment_after_KRAS_Inhibition fill:#dbeafe
    style Experimental_KRAS_Inhibition_with_Immune_Checkpoint_Blockade fill:#fce7f3
    style Senescent_Myofibroblast_Immunosuppression fill:#dbeafe
    style Exosome_MIF_Liver_Premetastatic_Niche fill:#dbeafe
    style Immune_Evasion fill:#dbeafe
    style Chronic_Pancreatic_Inflammation fill:#dbeafe
    style IL6_CAF_and_Myeloid_Rebound_after_SOS1_MEK_Inhibition fill:#dbeafe
    style Tumor_Restraining_Fibroblast_Programs fill:#dbeafe
    style Experimental_RAS_EGFR_STAT3_Combination fill:#fce7f3
    style Pancreatic_Enzyme_Replacement fill:#fce7f3
    style Tumor_Suppressor_Inactivation fill:#dbeafe
    style RTK_and_Feedback_Pathway_Reactivation fill:#dbeafe
S

Association Signals

Signal 1
LITERATURE LITERATURE_ASSOCIATION A_BEFORE_B
Population:International Pancreatitis Study Group multicentre historical cohort, 2015 subjects with chronic pancreatitis recruited across six countries, mean follow-up 7.4 years, with observed pancreatic cancers compared against country-specific incidence adjusted for age and sex.
Temporal: A before B: , B before A: , Same time:
OTHER: 16.5
CI: -
p:
FDR:
Standardized incidence ratio of pancreatic cancer among subjects with at least two years of follow-up, and 14.4 at five years. The unrestricted ratio of 26.3 is deliberately not used: excluding early follow-up removes cancers that were already present when pancreatitis was diagnosed. Metric type is OTHER because the enum has no standardized incidence ratio value.
PMID:8479461 (SUPPORT)
Source: HUMAN_CLINICAL
"For subjects with a minimum of two or five years of follow-up, the respective standardized incidence ratios were 16.5 (95 percent confidence interval, 11.1 to 23.7) and 14.4 (95 percent confidence interval, 8.5 to 22.8)."
Measures incident pancreatic cancer forward from a defined chronic pancreatitis cohort against expected population rates, which is what a directed A_BEFORE_B risk signal requires, and reports the lag-adjusted ratios that exclude reverse causation.
H

Hypotheses

Sustained pancreatic inflammation and the fibrotic, regenerative response to it provide the context from which pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma arises, in the same way cirrhosis does for hepatocellular carcinoma.
PMID:38408777 (SUPPORT)
Source: HUMAN_CLINICAL
"The disease is manifested by abdominal pain, deterioration in quality of life, food maldigestion and malabsorption, diabetes, and an increased risk for pancreatic adenocarcinoma."
Names increased pancreatic adenocarcinoma risk among the established consequences of chronic pancreatitis, in a clinical management review.
PMID:35142721 (SUPPORT)
Source: HUMAN_CLINICAL
"There is an increased risk of PDAC in patients with CP, and incidence rates increase with CP disease duration."
The cancer-specific anchor for this pair, and the strongest of the two: a systematic review and meta-analysis reporting not just elevated risk but a dose-response in disease duration, which is the pattern expected if the inflammation is causal rather than merely co-occurring.
Y

Raw YAML

Show YAML
name: com_Chronic_Pancreatitis__Pancreatic_Ductal_Adenocarcinoma
creation_date: "2026-08-27T00:00:00Z"
curation_status: CANDIDATE
notes: >-
  Split out of the former `kb/disorders/Metastatic_Pancreatic_Adenocarcinoma.yaml`'s
  (since folded into `Pancreatic_Ductal_Adenocarcinoma`, design decisions §3a)
  `environmental:` block (dismech#8296, dismech#8551). That entry listed
  `Chronic pancreatitis` as an exposure, but chronic pancreatitis is a
  first-class `Disease` entry in its own right
  (`kb/disorders/Chronic_Pancreatitis.yaml`) rather than something external to
  the organism acting on it.

  `disease_b` is `Pancreatic_Ductal_Adenocarcinoma`, not the
  `Metastatic_Pancreatic_Adenocarcinoma` entry this row came from. The cohort
  evidence measures incident pancreatic cancer in a chronic pancreatitis
  population without reference to stage at presentation, and nothing cited here
  addresses the metastatic entity specifically. Attaching a directed risk edge
  to the metastatic entry would assert more than the sources support -- the same
  correction the review of dismech#8195 applied to
  `com_Liver_Cirrhosis__Hepatocellular_Carcinoma`.

  The signal below uses the standardized incidence ratio computed after
  excluding the first two years of follow-up, 16.5 rather than the headline
  26.3. The unrestricted figure is inflated by cancers already present when
  pancreatitis was diagnosed, which is reverse causation rather than risk.
  PMID:35142721 is the more recent and more cancer-specific source and is cited
  in the hypothesis below, but the signal metric stays the 1993 cohort's SIR
  because a standardized incidence ratio measured forward from a defined
  pancreatitis cohort against expected population rates is a directed A_BEFORE_B
  quantity, which is what this slot holds; the meta-analysis reports incidence
  rising with disease duration rather than a single ratio.

  `kb/disorders/Pancreatic_Ductal_Adenocarcinoma.yaml` keeps its own
  `Chronic Pancreatitis` entry under `environmental:` rather than folding it in
  here, and the two divide the labour deliberately: that row carries the
  mechanistic route into the pathograph, which a comorbidity entry cannot
  express, and this entry carries the disease-disease epidemiology. Its `notes:`
  cross-references this file.

disease_a:
  slug: Chronic_Pancreatitis
  preferred_term: chronic pancreatitis
  term:
    id: MONDO:0005003
    label: chronic pancreatitis

disease_b:
  slug: Pancreatic_Ductal_Adenocarcinoma
  preferred_term: pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma
  term:
    id: MONDO:0005184
    label: pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

directionality: A_BEFORE_B
effect_direction: RISK

hypotheses:
- description: >-
    Sustained pancreatic inflammation and the fibrotic, regenerative response to
    it provide the context from which pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma arises,
    in the same way cirrhosis does for hepatocellular carcinoma.
  evidence:
  - reference: PMID:38408777
    reference_title: Management of chronic pancreatitis.
    supports: SUPPORT
    evidence_source: HUMAN_CLINICAL
    snippet: "The disease is manifested by abdominal pain, deterioration in quality of life, food maldigestion and malabsorption, diabetes, and an increased risk for pancreatic adenocarcinoma."
    explanation: >-
      Names increased pancreatic adenocarcinoma risk among the established
      consequences of chronic pancreatitis, in a clinical management review.
  - reference: PMID:35142721
    reference_title: "Chronic Pancreatitis Is a Risk Factor for Pancreatic Cancer, and Incidence Increases With Duration of Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis."
    supports: SUPPORT
    evidence_source: HUMAN_CLINICAL
    snippet: "There is an increased risk of PDAC in patients with CP, and incidence rates increase with CP disease duration."
    explanation: >-
      The cancer-specific anchor for this pair, and the strongest of the two:
      a systematic review and meta-analysis reporting not just elevated risk but
      a dose-response in disease duration, which is the pattern expected if the
      inflammation is causal rather than merely co-occurring.

association_signals:
- source: LITERATURE
  method: LITERATURE_ASSOCIATION
  population: >-
    International Pancreatitis Study Group multicentre historical cohort, 2015
    subjects with chronic pancreatitis recruited across six countries, mean
    follow-up 7.4 years, with observed pancreatic cancers compared against
    country-specific incidence adjusted for age and sex.
  directionality: A_BEFORE_B
  effect_direction: RISK
  statistics:
    metrics:
    - metric_type: OTHER
      metric_value: 16.5
      notes: >-
        Standardized incidence ratio of pancreatic cancer among subjects with at
        least two years of follow-up, and 14.4 at five years. The unrestricted
        ratio of 26.3 is deliberately not used: excluding early follow-up
        removes cancers that were already present when pancreatitis was
        diagnosed. Metric type is OTHER because the enum has no standardized
        incidence ratio value.
    evidence:
    - reference: PMID:8479461
      reference_title: Pancreatitis and the risk of pancreatic cancer. International Pancreatitis Study Group.
      supports: SUPPORT
      evidence_source: HUMAN_CLINICAL
      snippet: "For subjects with a minimum of two or five years of follow-up, the respective standardized incidence ratios were 16.5 (95 percent confidence interval, 11.1 to 23.7) and 14.4 (95 percent confidence interval, 8.5 to 22.8)."
      explanation: >-
        Measures incident pancreatic cancer forward from a defined chronic
        pancreatitis cohort against expected population rates, which is what a
        directed A_BEFORE_B risk signal requires, and reports the lag-adjusted
        ratios that exclude reverse causation.
Source:GitHub